As demonstrated by the low percentage of the primary vote won by Labor, I got the sense that many voters were looking for a third way past the two major parties but found the Greens too batshit crazy, One Nation too overtly racist and the newer fringe parties even crazier. Without the scare campaign about Dutton and Greens preferences, Labor would have polled even lower. It's government by default, rather than by decree, a little like the landslide the UK Labour Party won, only to be exposed for its continuing incompetency.
In my view Albo copped a major wound over The Voice referendum and has been a lame duck ever since but he's in the fortunate position of facing a self-immolating opposition party and otherwise a bunch of loonies. The electorate always suffers with the lack of a credible alternative, and I can only hope that either the Libs get their house in order or a new party appears on the horizon that offers a genuine challenge because the Teals aren't it.
Yes, the irony is that the ALP only achieved 34% of primary votes and won its handsome majority off Green preferences, at the serious expense of the Greens. Underneath the powerful majority for this term, the ALP support remains decidedly soft in the electorate. And the Greens have not gone away. They have a strong grip on the Senate, their percentage of primary votes in the Reps election remains high, and unless the ALP and whatever still stands of the Coalition work together in the Senate, the Greens will constrict the passage into law of all legislation with their ideological choak hold that way.
Like most people on May 2, I was resigned to a minority Labour government controlled by the Greens, and I am so, so relieved this did not happen. But I hope the ALP grasps this opportunity to keep centrist politics alive, and breaks free from its dependence on the Greens. Penny Wong has said encouraging things about Green extremism, but I am not exactly sure what she means. Is the ALP now going to uphold an unambiguous anti-Hamas stance? Is the ALP now going to drop rainbow ideology and uphold sex-based rights for women and drop “gender affirming care” so as to actually protect minors from a state health-policy mandated trans body mutilation cult? The ALP will not win the centre back in any strong way unless it is genuinely prepared to work with the majority of Australians and find a way back to policies that actually align with common sense and serious (rather than extremist) moral intelligence.
I did like your comments on civic religion Julie. Being reminded by an atheist Jew of Saint Teresa of Avila’s take on “this too will pass” – as regards trans ideology – was a just and powerful reproach against despair (thanks Julie!). And then, being politically formed in the Gough era, like you, voting anything other than ALP always feels like apostacy to me. But then, when the priest cast itself seems to have become apostate, what does one do???
A lot of people are trying to deny this but realistically it was Trump that scared people away from the Libs - this is more or les proven by the identical outcome in Canada. My worst fear is that this win will be taken by ALP as public approval for full-bore wokeism, as I was hoping the rollback would come.
Its still unfathomable to be why the conservatives won't take on the gender ideology issue with gusto, maybe they are playing the long game when a generation of iatrogenically mutilated people comes into full view.
The other own goal is of course the nuclear issue nobody asked for - Australia doesn't want nuclear power, just get over it. BT (before Trump) all Dutton had to do was say (only say) they would slash immigration and shut up to be on the way to the lodge. The only saviour I can see anywhere is Josh Frydenberg. Wouldn't his return to leadership put the Gaza issue on point?
Agreed. Dutton proved himself to be a one-trick pony, playing wedge politics over issues that did not resonate or he found himself on the wrong side of after public debate. I think the "win" he achieved with The Voice referendum skewed his approach, fatally. As you say, he should have appreciated Albo and Labor were on the nose and just made himself a small target, pushing as many more likable colleagues as he could in front of the cameras. Disastrous campaign that should be studied.
There are just some people that are unlikeable/come across badly - he is clearly one. The ex-copper background doesn’t help. Re small target I actually advocate exactly the opposite of this regarding the culture war issues like gender ideology. There is so much scandal there it should be easily exploitable - I hope at least the state Libs with Moira back onboard will run with this.
(I just walked past Bandit’s soon-to-be-ex office!)
I perhaps expressed myself badly. I intended to suggest that Dutton should have made himself a small target, to alleviate his lack of personal appeal, not his policies (such as they were). To also combat the narrative of the Libs being a party for the boys, he could have conducted more press conferences in company with a female shadow minister (in a speaking role, not just as a head nodder behind him) or let her do it herself in his absence. I felt the more people saw of him, the worse the campaign went.
I agree that issues such as immigration and gender ideology are potential vote winners. The old 'stop the boats' issue was even reluctantly recognised by Labor as something they had to get on board with (pardon the pun). As for gender ideology, I think the very noisy minority support for it disguises a very large silent opposition that simply needs to be tapped into. Once people realise they won't be pilloried for speaking against it, we will see a steady groundswell of backlash. The USA and UK are already seeing this occur in the wake of Trump's election and the recent UK Supreme Court ruling.
Thank you, Julie. I should have been surprised by the scale of Labor’s win but I wasn’t. I still find it hard to believe the Liberals thought Dutton could win. The gracious concession speech showed he is not the Aussie Trump depicted by the left but he is still singularly unappealing. As one guest on Gruen National said ‘the camera hates him’. Unfair but true. Further he doesn’t have the intellect or policy nous of a Howard to compensate for it. The PM should not get any ideas that this election was an endorsement of his government but rather the result of a poor alternative leader and dreadful campaign by the Liberals.
As demonstrated by the low percentage of the primary vote won by Labor, I got the sense that many voters were looking for a third way past the two major parties but found the Greens too batshit crazy, One Nation too overtly racist and the newer fringe parties even crazier. Without the scare campaign about Dutton and Greens preferences, Labor would have polled even lower. It's government by default, rather than by decree, a little like the landslide the UK Labour Party won, only to be exposed for its continuing incompetency.
In my view Albo copped a major wound over The Voice referendum and has been a lame duck ever since but he's in the fortunate position of facing a self-immolating opposition party and otherwise a bunch of loonies. The electorate always suffers with the lack of a credible alternative, and I can only hope that either the Libs get their house in order or a new party appears on the horizon that offers a genuine challenge because the Teals aren't it.
Totally agree David
I know , I know , I know but I did vote differently this time.
Yes, the irony is that the ALP only achieved 34% of primary votes and won its handsome majority off Green preferences, at the serious expense of the Greens. Underneath the powerful majority for this term, the ALP support remains decidedly soft in the electorate. And the Greens have not gone away. They have a strong grip on the Senate, their percentage of primary votes in the Reps election remains high, and unless the ALP and whatever still stands of the Coalition work together in the Senate, the Greens will constrict the passage into law of all legislation with their ideological choak hold that way.
Like most people on May 2, I was resigned to a minority Labour government controlled by the Greens, and I am so, so relieved this did not happen. But I hope the ALP grasps this opportunity to keep centrist politics alive, and breaks free from its dependence on the Greens. Penny Wong has said encouraging things about Green extremism, but I am not exactly sure what she means. Is the ALP now going to uphold an unambiguous anti-Hamas stance? Is the ALP now going to drop rainbow ideology and uphold sex-based rights for women and drop “gender affirming care” so as to actually protect minors from a state health-policy mandated trans body mutilation cult? The ALP will not win the centre back in any strong way unless it is genuinely prepared to work with the majority of Australians and find a way back to policies that actually align with common sense and serious (rather than extremist) moral intelligence.
I did like your comments on civic religion Julie. Being reminded by an atheist Jew of Saint Teresa of Avila’s take on “this too will pass” – as regards trans ideology – was a just and powerful reproach against despair (thanks Julie!). And then, being politically formed in the Gough era, like you, voting anything other than ALP always feels like apostacy to me. But then, when the priest cast itself seems to have become apostate, what does one do???
Amen to all of that Paul.
'these days its non-binary rank-and-file wear the watermelons on their sleeve and in their earlobes' - classic line Julie!
Cheers Petula
A lot of people are trying to deny this but realistically it was Trump that scared people away from the Libs - this is more or les proven by the identical outcome in Canada. My worst fear is that this win will be taken by ALP as public approval for full-bore wokeism, as I was hoping the rollback would come.
Its still unfathomable to be why the conservatives won't take on the gender ideology issue with gusto, maybe they are playing the long game when a generation of iatrogenically mutilated people comes into full view.
The other own goal is of course the nuclear issue nobody asked for - Australia doesn't want nuclear power, just get over it. BT (before Trump) all Dutton had to do was say (only say) they would slash immigration and shut up to be on the way to the lodge. The only saviour I can see anywhere is Josh Frydenberg. Wouldn't his return to leadership put the Gaza issue on point?
Agreed. Dutton proved himself to be a one-trick pony, playing wedge politics over issues that did not resonate or he found himself on the wrong side of after public debate. I think the "win" he achieved with The Voice referendum skewed his approach, fatally. As you say, he should have appreciated Albo and Labor were on the nose and just made himself a small target, pushing as many more likable colleagues as he could in front of the cameras. Disastrous campaign that should be studied.
There are just some people that are unlikeable/come across badly - he is clearly one. The ex-copper background doesn’t help. Re small target I actually advocate exactly the opposite of this regarding the culture war issues like gender ideology. There is so much scandal there it should be easily exploitable - I hope at least the state Libs with Moira back onboard will run with this.
(I just walked past Bandit’s soon-to-be-ex office!)
I perhaps expressed myself badly. I intended to suggest that Dutton should have made himself a small target, to alleviate his lack of personal appeal, not his policies (such as they were). To also combat the narrative of the Libs being a party for the boys, he could have conducted more press conferences in company with a female shadow minister (in a speaking role, not just as a head nodder behind him) or let her do it herself in his absence. I felt the more people saw of him, the worse the campaign went.
I agree that issues such as immigration and gender ideology are potential vote winners. The old 'stop the boats' issue was even reluctantly recognised by Labor as something they had to get on board with (pardon the pun). As for gender ideology, I think the very noisy minority support for it disguises a very large silent opposition that simply needs to be tapped into. Once people realise they won't be pilloried for speaking against it, we will see a steady groundswell of backlash. The USA and UK are already seeing this occur in the wake of Trump's election and the recent UK Supreme Court ruling.
Thank you, Julie. I should have been surprised by the scale of Labor’s win but I wasn’t. I still find it hard to believe the Liberals thought Dutton could win. The gracious concession speech showed he is not the Aussie Trump depicted by the left but he is still singularly unappealing. As one guest on Gruen National said ‘the camera hates him’. Unfair but true. Further he doesn’t have the intellect or policy nous of a Howard to compensate for it. The PM should not get any ideas that this election was an endorsement of his government but rather the result of a poor alternative leader and dreadful campaign by the Liberals.